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On a calibrated model, forecasting is done using the forecast
command. On an estimated model, use the forecast
option of
estimation
command.
It is also possible to compute forecasts on a calibrated or estimated
model for a given constrained path of the future endogenous
variables. This is done, from the reduced form representation of the
DSGE model, by finding the structural shocks that are needed to match
the restricted paths. Use conditional_forecast
,
conditional_forecast_paths
and plot_conditional_forecast
for that purpose.
If the model contains strong non-linearities, the conditional forecasts
can be computed using an extended path method with the simulation_type
option in conditional_forecast
command set to deterministic
.
Because in this case deterministic simulations are carried out,
the nature of the shocks (surprise or perfect foresight) has to be indicated
in the conditional_forecast_paths
block, using the command expectation
for each endogenous path. The forecasts are plotted using the rplot
command.
Finally, it is possible to do forecasting with a Bayesian VAR using
the bvar_forecast
command.
Description
This command computes a simulation of a stochastic model from an arbitrary initial point.
When the model also contains deterministic exogenous shocks, the simulation is computed conditionaly to the agents knowing the future values of the deterministic exogenous variables.
forecast
must be called after stoch_simul
.
forecast
plots the trajectory of endogenous variables. When a
list of variable names follows the command, only those variables are
plotted. A 90% confidence interval is plotted around the mean
trajectory. Use option conf_sig
to change the level of the
confidence interval.
Options
periods = INTEGER
Number of periods of the forecast. Default: 40
conf_sig = DOUBLE
Level of significance for confidence
interval. Default: 0.90
nograph
See nograph.
nodisplay
See nodisplay.
graph_format = FORMAT
graph_format = ( FORMAT, FORMAT… )
See graph_format.
Initial Values
forecast
computes the forecast taking as initial values the values specified in histval
(see section histval). When no histval
block is present, the initial values are the one stated in initval
. When initval
is followed by command steady
, the initial values are the steady state (see section steady).
Output
The results are stored in oo_.forecast
, which is described below.
Example
varexo_det tau; varexo e; … shocks; var e; stderr 0.01; var tau; periods 1:9; values -0.15; end; stoch_simul(irf=0); forecast; |
Variable set by the forecast
command, or by the
estimation
command if used with the forecast
option and
if no Metropolis-Hastings has been computed (in that case, the
forecast is computed for the posterior mode). Fields are of the form:
|
where FORECAST_MOMENT is one of the following:
HPDinf
Lower bound of a 90% HPD interval(6) of forecast due to parameter uncertainty
HPDsup
Lower bound of a 90% HPD interval due to parameter uncertainty
HPDTotalinf
Lower bound of a 90% HPD interval of forecast due to parameter
uncertainty and future shocks (only with the estimation
command)
HPDTotalsup
Lower bound of a 90% HPD interval due to parameter uncertainty and
future shocks (only with the estimation
command)
Mean
Mean of the posterior distribution of forecasts
Median
Median of the posterior distribution of forecasts
Std
Standard deviation of the posterior distribution of forecasts
Set by the estimation
command, if it is used with the
forecast
option and if either mh_replic > 0
or
load_mh_file
option is used.
Contains the distribution of forecasts taking into account the uncertainty about both parameters and shocks.
Fields are of the form:
|
Set by the estimation
command, if it is used with the
forecast
option and if either mh_replic > 0
or
load_mh_file
option is used.
Contains the distribution of forecasts where the uncertainty about shocks is averaged out. The distribution of forecasts therefore only represents the uncertainty about parameters.
Fields are of the form:
|
Description
This command computes forecasts on an estimated model for a given constrained path of some future endogenous variables. This is done, from the reduced form representation of the DSGE model, by finding the structural shocks that are needed to match the restricted paths. This command has to be called after estimation.
Use conditional_forecast_paths
block to give the list of
constrained endogenous, and their constrained future path.
If an extended path method is applied on the original dsge model,
the nature of the expectation on the constrained endogenous has to be
specified using expectation command. Option
controlled_varexo
is used to specify the structural shocks
which will be matched to generate the constrained path.
Use plot_conditional_forecast
to graph the results.
Options
parameter_set = calibration
| prior_mode
| prior_mean
| posterior_mode
| posterior_mean
| posterior_median
Specify the parameter set to use for the forecasting. No default value, mandatory option.
controlled_varexo = (VARIABLE_NAME…)
Specify the exogenous variables to use as control variables. No default value, mandatory option.
periods = INTEGER
Number of periods of the forecast. Default: 40
. periods
cannot be less than the number of constrained periods.
replic = INTEGER
Number of simulations. Default: 5000
.
conf_sig = DOUBLE
Level of significance for confidence interval. Default: 0.80
simulation_type = stochastic
| deterministic
Indicates the nature of simulations used to compute the conditional forecast.
The default value stochastic
is used, when simulations are computed
using the reduced form representation of the DSGE model.
If the model has to be simulated using extended path method on the original
DSGE model, simulation_type
has to be set equal to deterministic
.
Output
The results are not stored in the oo_
structure but in a separate structure forecasts
saved to the harddisk into a file called conditional_forecasts.mat
.
Variable set by the conditional_forecast
command. It stores the conditional forecasts. Fields are periods+1
by 1 vectors storing the steady state (time 0) and the subsequent periods
forecasts periods. Fields are of the form:
|
where FORECAST_MOMENT is one of the following:
Mean
Mean of the conditional forecast distribution.
ci
Confidence interval of the conditional forecast distribution. The size corresponds to conf_sig
.
Variable set by the conditional_forecast
command. It stores the unconditional forecasts. Fields are of the form:
|
Variable set by the conditional_forecast
command. Stores the names of the exogenous instruments.
Variable set by the conditional_forecast
command. Stores the position of the constrained endogenous variables in declaration order.
Variable set by the conditional_forecast
command. Stores the information for generating the conditional forecast plots.
Example
var y a varexo e u; … estimation(…); conditional_forecast_paths; var y; periods 1:3, 4:5; values 2, 5; var a; periods 1:5; values 3; end; conditional_forecast(parameter_set = calibration, controlled_varexo = (e, u), replic = 3000); plot_conditional_forecast(periods = 10) a y; |
Example
/* conditional forecast using extended path method with perfect foresight on r path*/ var y r varexo e u; … conditional_forecast_paths; var y; periods 1:3, 4:5; values 2, 5; var r periods 1:5; values 3; expectation perfect_foresight; end; conditional_forecast(parameter_set = calibration, controlled_varexo = (e, u), simulation_type=deterministic); rplot a; rplot y; |
Describes the path of constrained endogenous, before calling
conditional_forecast
. The syntax is similar to deterministic
shocks in shocks
, see conditional_forecast
for an
example.
The syntax of the block is the same than the deterministic shocks in
the shocks
blocks (see section Shocks on exogenous variables).
If the conditional forecast is carried out using the extended path method
on the original DSGE model, the nature of the expectation have to be specified
for each endogenous path, using the expectation
= surprise
| perfect_foresight
.
By default, expectation
is equal to surprise
.
Description
Plots the conditional (plain lines) and unconditional (dashed lines) forecasts.
To be used after conditional_forecast
.
Options
periods = INTEGER
Number of periods to be plotted. Default: equal to periods
in
conditional_forecast
. The number of periods declared in
plot_conditional_forecast
cannot be greater than the one
declared in conditional_forecast
.
This command computes (out-of-sample) forecasts for an estimated BVAR model, using Minnesota priors.
See ‘bvar-a-la-sims.pdf’, which comes with Dynare distribution, for more information on this command.
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